The Chaos Scenario Cometh?
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A recent article on CNNMoney.com indicates one in eight cable and satellite subscribers will reduce or completely eliminate their service this year. As someone who recently did just this, it very interesting to read many others are thinking the same way.
Although I recently pointed out that I found TV to be too much of a time suck and cut off our cable service to help make more time for other things like reading and writing, I have to admit that the subscription cost was also a large factor in my decision to cut the cable. With streaming from NetFlix, Hulu.com and YouTube, I can watch pretty much any show I enjoyed via cable at a much lower cost. According to the CNNMoney.com article, the average cost for cable or satellite is $71 per month – I was paying much more than that and certainly resented it.
I wonder if this is just another sign that Bob Garfield’s predictions in “The Chaos Scenario” are coming to pass. People are unplugging from “traditional” media and starting to wander off to new frontiers.
One thing I see happening is the attempt to push payment models on these new frontiers. For example, Hulu.com is preparing a pay-to-watch service and I’ve heard rumors YouTube may start a similar “premium” service for previously broadcast shows. Still, even at around $10 per month for these pay services plus the $15 per month I spend on NetFlix, I’m still coming out way ahead of what I was paying for cable service.
Perhaps that pay model isn’t so bad, after all.
Well, you’re coming out ahead until you find more than 7 services to subscribe to.
Then, of course, the New Frontier media will begin bundling: “Get Hulu plus Netflix for only $X a month!”
Etc. It might look like savings but the point is: You’re always gonna pay.
DN
Hi Dave – thanks for stopping by.
You are correct, someone, somewhere is going to get paid. I don’t subscribe to the idea that all content should be provided completely free of cost. That being said, I certainly didn’t appreciate paying for content (i.e. cable service), then being jammed with tons of commercials on top of it. That, combined with the poor service and indifferent attitude of the cable company towards customers service and the fact that I was watching way too much TV led me to take the step to just unplug. So far, the only thing I really miss are Detroit Red Wings playoff games. Of course, I could pay $20 a year and subscribe to the NHL.com streaming video …
Thanks for the response. And let me clarify that I am not, now or ever, defending cable. I mean, that’s the Devil’s job and he’s doing a heckuva job. A friend works in “customer service” for Comcast, so I know just how bad the situation is.
As Garfield so acutely notes with the Chaos Scenario, we’re in a time of unbundling with no clear path ahead. I sense is that there will be rebundling, co-bundling, throttling, and tiered pricing of content and access. I’m cynical enough, and old enough, to believe that in the end consumers will have to pay more for what used to be free.
Decades of consumers were perfectly happy living in a world of three TV channels and AM radio, all free. We can look back and laugh now, but it worked for them. Just as illuminated manuscripts worked for all those monks in the monasteries.
The problem now is that technology keeps outpacing business models, hence chaos. But ultimately, business finds a way to win.
Go Red Wings.
DN
I didn’t take your comments as defending cable at all. In my experience, if their TV service was a good as their Internet service they might not be losing customers as quickly as they are.
This is a very interesting point, and I don’t think your cynicism is totally out of place. I have to wonder, though, with the pace of technological advancement, if things will ever settle down enough for business to stay “ahead” for very long. Someone needs to make some money in order for any type of media to thrive, but I can imagine in the not-too-distant future we may look at Hulu, NetFlix and other streaming media models like we now look at the 3 TV channels and AM radio days.
I agree and that’s partly my point — that a service like Hulu or even Netflix doesn’t get the opportunity to stick around long enough to create a workable business plan, because everyone keeps running off to the next new, usually free, thing.
You may enjoy a video I made on the subject — also a defense of my poor beleaguered Palm Pilot. (I know, I know…) My starting point was that 9 days after the iPad went on sale, Gizmodo was asking when it would be obsolete. Nine days is a pretty short time to make your business profitable…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAdZT7gCDZg
DN
Loved the video! Thanks for sharing it.
You do have a valid point, there. With things shifting so quickly who can tell what’s going to be valid next year, next month, or even tomorrow.
Don’t feel bad about keeping your Palm Pilot around. I hung on to my Commodore 64 until about 1999 when my wife finally sold it in a garage sale. It made a dandy terminal for my ham radio hobby quite a long time after it became “obsolescent.”
Thanks. Waiting for the Smithsonian to call so I can donate all my ancient tech. I still have the Netscape 1.0 floppie discs and box. That’s just sad….
DN
Have you ever caught an episode of the British version “The IT Crowd?” They have an excellent collection of old tech stuff around the office. In the background in this clip you can see a Commodore PET and some other “antiques” – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxVeMhI9Qo0&feature=related
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